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Jie Cai (SHUFE): Intergenerational Occupational Mobility and Inequality in a Spatial Model with Trade and Immigration

We combine spatial economics and intergenerational career choice into a multisector, multi-occupational and multiregional general equilibrium model to study the quantitative impact of education reform, trade and immigration on occupational mobility and inequality. We calibrate the model using the China Household Survey 2005 and interregional trade data. In four counterfactual experiments, we find that an education reform that grants all children the same ex ante talent distribution generates the largest within-region intergenerational occupational mobility and the largest welfare gains. However, the reform cannot reduce inequality due to large cross-regional productivity gaps. Trade liberalization deters mobility across occupations and regions and increases income inequality. An immigration reform that reduces immigration costs across regions boosts cross-regional mobility and reduces inequality dramatically but, counterintuitively, reduces intergenerational occupational mobility. A combined trade liberalization and immigration reform achieves a desirable balance between welfare gains and income equality.

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